Experts pick Rep. Issa to win in 2026, unless Democrats ride a ‘seismic shift’

Republican Darrell Issa will win his th race for Congress if historic patterns hold File photo by Ken Stone Times of San Diego What do Richard Hill David Guthrie and Hewitt Fitts Ryan have in common How about David Secor Janet Gastil and Darity Wesley All are among the Democrats who ve lost congressional elections in ruby red East County since Libertarian Lynn Badler was the lone non-Dem runner-up back in In fact the Republican victor in those races won by an average of percentage points Throw out Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar s -point loss to indicted Rep Duncan D Hunter in and the average is points No wonder the authoritative Cook Political Document lists Rep Darrell Issa s race in CA as noncompetitive But Issa elected to the House a dozen times since and the latest East County Republican has drawn three challengers Do any of these Democrats stand a chance History says no That s also the stance of several political scientists contacted by Times of San Diego Issa won the race by more than points and Cook Political has it rated as a safe Republican seat for at this point explained Lawrence Becker a professor at Cal State Northridge who earned his bachelor s degree in political science at UC San Diego He says looks like a more favorable circumstances nationally for House Democrats than so it would not be surprising to see a Democratic candidate close that -point gap a bit in particularly if Democrats are able to recruit a strong challenger who is well-funded But closing an -point gap is pretty unlikely he reported via email It would require the kind of seismic shift that is exceedingly unlikely especially in the current hyper-polarized era that we re in Becker writes Bigger GOP targets Even if things go very wrong for Republicans nationally in Democrats will be much more focused on other GOP incumbents in California he revealed citing Reps David Valadao Ken Calvert Young Kim and Kevin Kiley Democrats he says will have their hands full trying to defeat those incumbents before they try to expand the map further by trying to defeat a Republican like Issa who is in a much more red district with of voters registered as Republicans and as Democrats Even a strong well-funded challenger isn t likely to be enough to make CA a race he declared If that district becomes competitive we re talking about either a few major controversy related to Issa or particular national seismic shift that seems unlikely from where we are standing right now Longtime San Diego political observer Carl Luna a University of San Diego professor likens a GOP loss here to science fiction Normally one would expect an alien invasion bodysnatching the Republicans of the district and replacing them with Democrats to be the only condition under which Democrats win in the th Luna says But these are rare times if the Trump policies crash the economic activity under the weight of tariffs inflation stock territory crashes In an era of monetary instability Luna says you could see a retaliatory blue wave sweeping away a lot of Republicans But it would take a Dem landslide to remove Issa he says Six months ago Luna says I would ve given the Democrats zero chance in the district Now maybe or By Issa s campaign didn t respond to a request for comment on his current challengers or whether he d debate the leading Democrat in fall I solicited Luna Should Democratic candidates make this voting a referendum on Donald Trump or focus on the requirements of CA Making Issa a lapdog Democrats only chance to win the th is to make it all about Donald Trump and make Issa look like a lapdog to a deranged would-be king president he replied Democrats he says have to hold Issa accountable for not standing up to any of Trump s failed economic policies from proposed massive budget cuts to basic services to the gutting of cabinet under the DOGE to potentially producing what could be by the worst business activity in the past years Also skeptical of a GOP defeat in CA is Daniel Schnur who teaches at UC Berkeley USC and Pepperdine Nothing in politics is impossible he informed me but a Democrat winning this seat would require a national landslide of historic proportions But if Trump s tariffs were to have the type of devastating economic impact that his critics are predicting GOP House candidates could suffer huge losses commented Schnur who was Sen John McCain s communications chief in the Arizonan s presidential run and Gov Pete Wilson s chief media spokesman That type of political landscape could provide a Democratic candidate the opportunity to run on a strong anti-Trump message he announced But that would require surfing a national wave rather than trying to localize the race in a district that leans so far to the right Dems need strong tide UC Irvine s Matthew Beckmann notes that midterm elections like tend to go against newly elected presidents The tide favored Trump and Republicans so history suggests the tide will pull toward the Democrats But to win a R district the Democrat will need to ride a rather strong tide which seemingly means an economic recession that lasts well into Democratic candidates in CA race from left are Albert Mora Curtis Morrison and Whitney Shanahan Times of San Diego photo illustration Beckmann who directs UC Irvine s Capital Internship Project in Washington says political science research shows congressional races are subject to forces bigger than the particulars of the campaign or candidates though the latter matter at the margins However it is far too early to know who or how one might best push those margins he wrote President Trump and congressional Republicans have embarked on an agenda that polls poorly and economists say could spark a recession Beckmann says In plenty of avenues the Democratic challenger s campaign will be defined by Rep Issa s choices in the months ahead Predictions for I required each professor to hazard a percentage guess on the outcome of a November runoff between Issa and the top Democrat Becker and Schnur wouldn t bite UC Irvine s Beckmann calls Issa the favorite and I d guess he wins by - points but that is really just a guess USD s Luna gives Dems possibly better odds If the market system has tanked along with Trump s approval ratings the Democrats could have a - chance he wrote But Luna has concerns All of this is predicated upon their definitely being fair and free elections in he disclosed As a number of political scientists and historians pointed out our current president has definite authoritarian tendencies Luna says Trump s suggested revisions to the Voting Rights Act and executive orders on voting registration are maybe just the opening salvo of a full-throated assault on voting rights and fair elections He added that if Trump is significantly unpopular in he might seek extraconstitutional remedies to keep his majorities in the House and Senate Any other time under any other president this would just be a foolish worry Luna commented In current times it could be next year s headlines Part of Also see Who can beat Rep Darrell Issa in CA- Three Democratic rivals step up to plate